Some very interesting data in a new poll by Pew.
1. Obama has an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval of 43% (+3%) among all adults. Among registered voters, it is 45-45 (+-0%).
2. The support for Obama based on income is U-shaped. Those earning more than $100.000 and less than $30.000 support him the most, the middle class supports him the least.
3. There are massive racial gaps in Obama’s support. Only 35% of non-Hispanic whites approve of the job Obama is doing as President, compared to 85% of African Americans (not surprising), and 61% of Hispanics.
I exclude those who do not answer and compare this with Obama’s results in the exit poll reported by CNN:
Loss of support:
Non-Hispanic Whites: -3.2%
African Americans and Hispanics: -2.2%
What is remarkable is if we don’t calculate percentage points, but percentage.
Obama started with a paltry 43.9% among non-Hispanic whites. He is down 3.2% points, which is 7.3% of 43.9%.
Loss of Obama support among whites: -7.3%
Loss of Obama support among Hispanics: -5.1%
Loss of Obama support among African Americans: -1.6%
Let me remind you once again: these are percentage of total votes, not percentage points which are usually reported.
This confirms with the theory that Hispanic voters on the margin follow the same trends as white voters, just with a much higher mean for Democrats.
I also predict that regardless of what happens during the Obama-presidency, his support among African Americans in 2012 exit polls will not go below 90%.
4. The support for the health care bill is 38% among all adults, and only 48% among the uninsured. This last figure is really remarkable. Even the constituency Obama is trying to bribe do not love his bill.
5. There are staggering racial gaps regarding the health care bill. Only 30% of non-Hispanic white voters support the Democrat health care bill. Among African Americans the support is 67%, and among Hispanics 59%.
While net support is -28% for whites, it is +33% for Hispanics. Fully 30% of the uninsured are Hispanic. The demographic transformation is driving the U.S towards the left. This is both through making the electorate ideologically more leftist, and through increasing groups in need for government assistance.
My interpretation is that if it would have not been for immigration policy the last 40 years, the takeover of the health care sector voted for today would not have take place.
This is an important lesson for libertarians who support open borders. You have to choose: if you want left-libertarian immigration politics you have to accept the United States slowly turning into a social-democratic welfare state.
This dilemma is part of reality and must therefore be confronted, it is not something you can wish or assume away in a theoretical discussion.